Incorporating and assessing travel demand uncertainty in transport investment appraisals

Details

Tender Closed
RFx ID :	13589630
Tender Name :	Incorporating and assessing travel demand uncertainty in transport investment appraisals
Reference # :	2015-405 ART 15-14
Open Date :	Thursday, 2 July 2015 5:00 PM (Pacific/Auckland UTC+12:00)
Close Date  :	Friday, 31 July 2015 5:00 PM (Pacific/Auckland UTC+12:00)
Tender Type :	Request for Proposals (RFP)
Tender Coverage :	Sole Agency  [?]
Categories :	78000000 - Transportation and Storage and Mail Services 81000000 - Engineering and Research and Technology Based Services 95000000 - Land and Buildings and Structures and Thoroughfares
Regions:	International
Exemption Reason :	None
Required Pre-qualifications :	None
Contact :	Jo Janaszkiewicz 04 894 6732
Alternate Physical Delivery Address  :
Alternate Physical Fax Number  :
Agency Address :	NEW ZEALAND

The benefits of an efficient and effective transport system are undoubtedly significant for economic growth and development, employment and productivity. Provision of transport systems requires investments that are on many occasions huge, irreversible, and risky with long economic return periods. The underlying factors are dynamic in nature and in many cases volatile. Planning transport infrastructure systems to satisfy short-term and long-term demand conditions requires decision makers to take into account uncertainty and irreversibility.

There are multiple sources of uncertainty in transport infrastructure planning and implementation. One of the key sources of uncertainty is whether travel demand is sufficient to cover the cost of the investment. This is especially the case as the investment horizon in the NZ Transport Agency’s Economic Evaluation Manual (EEM) to evaluate transport projects is 40 years.

There are many pitfalls in forecasting travel demand and these range from poor data quality, model accuracy /functional specification, stability of the underlying factors that drive demand etc. Due to the uncertainty in travel demand in the short and long term, transport investments can be evaluated in a real option framework with regard to timing and design/operational specifications.

The purposes of the research are to examine and understand the time series properties of travel demand and to analyse the impact of stochastic properties of travel demand in terms of real option framework.

Deadline for Questions from suppliers: 10.00am 17 July 2015
Deadline for the Buyer to answer suppliers’ questions: 22 July 2015
Deadline for Proposals: 5:00pm 31 July 2015

This tender has been awarded to:

• ECPC Limited, PO Box 1673, Taupo

Further Award Information:
Contract awarded to ECPC Ltd : 23 September 2015
Term of the contract and expiry : 17 months, 31 January 2017
Description of the goods and services : Research to establish methods for addressing the uncertainty that exists around travel demand forecasts

Award Date: Thursday, 6 July 2017 (Pacific/Auckland UTC+12:00)
Date RFx was completed/updated: Thursday, 22 June 2017 4:31 AM (Pacific/Auckland UTC+12:00)